DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/26 11:46

   Live Cattle Rally While Hogs Drift Lower Ahead of Quarterly Report

   Heading into Thursday's afternoon be prepared for the Quarterly Hogs and 
Pigs report and look for any developments in the cash cattle market as packer 
interest could improve.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Traders are really pushing the lean hog complex lower ahead of the 
afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report as pre-report nervousness runs 
rampant throughout the hog complex. Some early sales are currently being 
reported in the South at $185 live which is $2.00 higher than last week's 
weighted average. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December 
soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 239.72 
points.

   Thursday's export report stated that beef net sales of 10,100 mt for 2024 
were down 35% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. The 
three largest buyers were China (2,100 mt), Japan (1,700 mt) and Mexico (1,600 
mt). Pork net sales of 28,000 mt for 2024 were down 3% from the previous week 
and 8% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico 
(13,000 mt), Canada (3,300 mt) and China (2,700 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex is rallying into Thursday's noon hour as traders are 
elated to see early sales being reported in the South at $185, which is $2.00 
higher than last week's weighted average. Still no sales have been made in the 
North, but asking prices are firm for dressed cattle at $295. October live 
cattle are up $0.60 at $183.65, December live cattle are up $0.37 at $184.70 
and February live cattle are up $0.07 at $185.52. It is disappointing to see 
midday boxed beef prices lower as there seems to be some consumer pullback from 
the meat counter because if anything prices from a supply and demand 
perspective prices should be a tick higher this week as packers have reduced 
throughput which limits some supply and theoretically should push prices 
higher. But with the market seeing the opposite, one must wonder if consumers 
are spending the grocery budget elsewhere for meat as inflation continues to a 
be distressing problem for most Americans.

   Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.53 ($296.64) and select down 
$0.35 ($282.93) with a movement of 83 loads (26.04 loads of choice, 19.50 loads 
of select, 7.72 loads of trim and 30.15 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Even though the live cattle complex is trading mostly higher, the feeder 
cattle complex is trading in a more reserved manner as traders seem to be 
pumping the brakes until more fundamental support surfaces from the fed cash 
cattle market. October feeders are down $0.07 at $245.95, November feeders are 
down $0.17 at $243.87 and January feeders are down $0.75 at $237.77. But given 
the market's recent gains in the futures complex, seeing a slight pull-back as 
traders merely catch their breath, it's all that surprising.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is trading lower as the market braces for this 
afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. October lean hogs are down $0.95 at 
$81.52, December lean hogs are down $2.00 at $72.90 and February lean hogs are 
down $1.92 at $76.72. The market's reaction ahead of the USDA report seems a 
little overdone given that pork cutout values are higher and given that the 
cash market is seeing more interest than assumed for a Thursday. But as always, 
traders typically act unnervingly ahead of any big USDA report unveiling.

   The projected lean hog index for 9/25/2024 is up $0.02 at $84.07 and the 
actual index for 9/24/2024 is down $0.16 at $84.05. Hog prices are higher on 
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.43 with a weighted average price of 
$77.76, ranging from $72.00 to $80.00 on 1,580 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $76.48. Pork cutouts total 182.35 loads with 168.84 loads of pork 
cuts and 13.51 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.30, $94.40.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

    

    




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