DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/30 07:46

   Cotton Higher, But Awaits Data  

   The cotton market is materially higher Thursday morning as it somewhat 
birddogs the energy complex. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is materially higher Thursday morning as it somewhat 
birddogs the energy complex. Wednesday saw crude oil spike to new highs amid 
the on-going U.S./Iran war. Also, traders are awaiting Thursday's export sales 
report and Friday's CFTC update for further direction.

   USDA just released its weekly export sales update with the following numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 162,900 RB for 2025/2026 were up 36 percent 
from the previous week, but down 33 percent from the prior four-week average. 
Increases primarily for Vietnam (55,600 RB, including 2,200 RB switched from 
China, 300 RB switched from Japan, and decreases of 8,900 RB), Pakistan (33,300 
RB, including 400 RB switched from Switzerland and decreases of 900 RB), 
Honduras (29,700 RB, including decreases of 3,900 RB), Bangladesh (20,900 RB, 
including decreases of 100 RB), and India (9,800 RB, including decreases of 100 
RB), were offset by reductions for China (4,300 RB), Japan (1,000 RB), Ecuador 
(600 RB), and Switzerland (400 RB). Net sales of 105,700 RB for 2026/2027 
reported for Turkey (66,100 RB), China (22,000 RB), Guatemala (18,000 RB), 
Honduras (10,500 RB), and Pakistan (5,700 RB), were offset by reductions for 
Vietnam (16,700 RB). Exports of 384,600 RB were up 30 percent from the previous 
week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were 
primarily to Vietnam (155,000 RB), Pakistan (38,500 RB), Turkey (37,300 RB), 
India (34,500 RB), and Bangladesh (26,100 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 
21,900 RB for 2025/2026 were down 40 percent from the previous week, but up 35 
percent from the prior four-week average.  Increases were primarily for India 
(7,200 RB), Vietnam (4,800 RB, including 100 RB switched from Japan), China 
(2,600 RB), Egypt (2,200 RB), and Costa Rica (1,700 RB). Net sales of 11,500 RB 
for 2026/2027 were reported for India (6,200 RB) and Egypt (5,300 RB). Exports 
of 17,800 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 
four-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (9,100 RB), China 
(4,900 RB), Pakistan (1,700 RB), Peru (1,700 RB), and Turkey (300 RB)."

   Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, although it 
was not a unanimous vote. In fact, the Board of Governors was divided 8 to 4 in 
maintaining rates. It was the greatest division since October 1992. The new Fed 
Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to be at the central bank's helm for the June 
Meeting.

   Spot May contract is in delivery. Thursday there were zero notices issued. 
Thus far, 178 notices have been issued. May's delivery period runs through May 
6.

   Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders 
information. Last week, the report showed the managed-money funds bought some 
17,000 positions, strengthening their net-long carry to 34,464 contracts.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 79.00 cents and 78.60 cents, with 
resistance around 82.00 cents and 82.50 cents. Thursday morning's estimated 
volume is 33,001 contracts.

    

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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