DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          03/31 07:14

   Cotton Gains Hold 

   After several raucous upside sessions, Tuesday morning the cotton market is 
still reaching higher prices

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After several raucous upside sessions, Tuesday morning the cotton market is 
still reaching higher prices. Interestingly, there seems to be more than the 
ordinary technical and fundamental conditions at work, as there is evidence 
speculative money flow is increasing into the trade. The bearish position of 
the speculative funds is being reduced and Mother Nature appears to be 
uncooperative as well.

   Tuesday at noon EDT, USDA will issue its all-important 2026 Prospective 
Plantings report. Average trade expectations are 9.229 million acres with a 
range of 9.000 million to 9.635 million. This compares to 9.283 million in 
2025; 9.400 million in February Outlook Forum; and 8.99 million for the 
National Cotton Council's membership's survey.

   The National Climate Prediction Center continues to see expanding drought 
conditions across Western U.S. and for parts of the U.S. Plains. An El Nino 
event is forecasted (62%) and could last into 2027. Currently, the Center shows 
91% of the U.S. Cotton Belt is suffering drought conditions, up from last 
week's reading of 90%.

   This Thursday, USDA will issue its weekly export sales report. Previously, 
net combined seasonal sales were 230,000 bales, far below the recent pace of 
300,000-plus. However, exports were 400,600 bales, which was another 
marketing-year high on shipments. 

   All U.S. markets will be closed this Friday for the Good Friday/Easter 
holiday.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 71.85 cents and 70.60 cents, with 
resistance around 73.25 cents and 74.00 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated 
volume is 22,778 contracts.

    

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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