DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          07/26 07:53

   Cotton Remains on Defense

   The cotton market is backing off Friday, as it trades below the 70-cent 
support level. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is backing off Friday, as it trades below the 70-cent 
support level. The market continues to deal with a decidedly bearish trend, 
egged on by decidedly bearish speculators. As the market commences this Friday 
Session, it is already down 225 points on the week.

   The PCE Index, the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation 
indicator, is out with benign numbers. On a monthly basis, headline PCE is 
expected to have grown by 0.1% and by 2.5% from 12 months earlier, according to 
economists polled by Dow Jones. The actual numbers were the expected increase 
of 0.1% in June, and 2.5% year-over-year. The central bank's long-standing 
target is to maintain an inflation rate of 2%.

   Friday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. EDT, CFTC will update its 
Commitment-of-Traders data. Last week, per Tuesday's settlement, the 
managed-money funds had bought some 225 contracts, barely denting their net 
short position of 40,000 contracts.

   On Monday, USDA will report on the status of the 2024 crop. Last week's 
reading indicated the crop was rated 53% good/excellent, up from the previous 
two weeks' numbers of 45% good/excellent. The data will be released at 4 p.m. 

   For Friday, chart support for December cotton stands at 67.50 cents and 
67.00 cents, with 69.89 cents and 70.00 cents as resistance. Friday morning's 
estimated volume stands at 5,266 contracts. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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