DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/14 07:16

   Cotton Inches Higher

   Overnight, ICE cotton continued to set higher price gains, as the market 
posted its fourth consecutive positive close, as well as nailing its seventh 
higher close of the last eight sessions, and the 12th higher close of the last 
14 sessions for a two-week increase of nearly 750 points.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   Overnight, ICE cotton continued to set higher price gains, as the market 
posted its fourth consecutive positive close, as well as nailing its seventh 
higher close of the last eight sessions, and the 12th higher close of the last 
14 sessions for a two-week increase of nearly 750 points. Moreover, the 
December 2027 contract hoisted a new contract high close. Traders are seeing 
the deepening drought situation, as well as being mindful of the Middle East 
conflict.

   USDA reported that 7% of the U.S. crop is planted. That compares with the 
five-year average of 7%. Texas is 11% seeded compared to 12%, but Georgia, 
where the drought is most acute, is 1% planted and the five-year average is 
also 1%.

   This Thursday, traders will see a new round of export sales from USDA. Last 
week's data showed net weekly sales were 319,000 bales, down 14%, while 
shipments were 342,000 bales off 4%.

   First notice day for the May contract is April 24. Its delivery period runs 
through May 6.

   Also, on Thursday and this Friday, traders will see fresh retail sales data 
and updated housing starts numbers. Both of those reports reflect a large 
portion of domestic demand for the cotton industry.

   Crude oil is lower today as the International Energy Agency forecast that 
"demand destruction will spread" amid growing supply scarcity and higher 
average due to the U.S./Iran war. The conflict has already led to the greatest 
disruption to oil supply in history, according to the IEA, and the largest ever 
monthly spike in prices during March.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 75.60 cents and 74.70 cents, with 
resistance around 78.20 cents and 79.00 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated 
volume is 32,310 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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