Ag Weather Forum              02/17 11:59

   Three Big 'Spring' Storms Threaten US This Week

   At least two, and probably a third, storm systems will move across the 
country this week, producing strong winds, heavy snow, and potential for severe 
weather across a widespread area.

John Baranick
Staff Meteorologist

   Warmer air spread through the country last week as the overall weather 
pattern started to change regimes. Over the weekend that process continued, 
which resulted in a big storm moving through the Western U.S. That storm, at 
least one more, and likely a third are in line to move through the country this 
week. With the big shift in temperature, there is ample energy out there to 
produce widespread impacts from gusty winds, heavy snow, potential blizzard 
conditions, and severe weather.

   You could think of this scenario as three waves of the same storm, because 
they all come from the same upper-air trough. Or you could count these as three 
separate storms; but how they are categorized means very little. What will 
matter more are the impacts felt throughout the country as the system(s) move 
through.

   The first wave is leaving the West and entering the Plains on Tuesday 
morning, Feb. 17. The precipitation impacts from this portion of the storm will 
move across the north with heavy snow already forming in Alberta, Canada. The 
main low-pressure center will move from northeast Wyoming through South Dakota 
and into Minnesota Tuesday, with the storm spreading out across the Great Lakes 
for Wednesday, Feb. 18. Heavy snow will continue to develop down to the low 
track and will be particularly heavy from Alberta through North Dakota and into 
northern Minnesota where more than six inches is appearing very likely across a 
widespread area and some areas may see close to a foot. With some 
lake-enhancement on the North Shore of Minnesota, totals could make it up to 
two feet of accumulation.

   To go along with the snow, winds will be awfully strong across the Plains on 
Tuesday afternoon and gusts of more than 60 mph will be possible from Alberta 
down to west Texas. While southern areas will see very little precipitation, 
the winds could cause some damage on their own. Drier areas could see blowing 
dust as well as an increased wildfire risk. Where the snow and winds coincide, 
blizzard conditions will be possible. The National Weather Service has a 
blizzard warning posted for northeast Montana that may have to be extended into 
northern North Dakota and Minnesota as well.

   Part two of the storm is currently moving into California on Tuesday. After 
producing significant snowfall in the Sierras with peak accumulation in the 
highest passes at over six feet, the storm will continue through Utah and 
Colorado for Wednesday, where additional heavy snow of up to three feet is in 
the forecast. Western states are currently in a significant snow drought, with 
totals running less than 40% of normal in some areas due to somewhat lower 
precipitation, but mainly higher temperatures over the last few months. The 
current and coming storm will help considerably with easing that drought, 
though there is a long way to go.

   The second wave will continue into the Central Plains on Wednesday night and 
especially Thursday, Feb. 18-19, moving across the Nebraska-Kansas border and 
then arcing northward into Wisconsin. A band of snow will form on the northern 
edge of the storm. Though models disagree greatly about snowfall intensity, 
there is potential for at least six inches to fall along the most preferred 
path from the Black Hills to Nebraska, northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and 
western Wisconsin. The oddly shaped arc path will be interesting to watch and 
appear unusual for those who regularly watch the weather.

   This storm may also produce stronger winds, but far below the 60-mph 
threshold, and blizzard conditions are currently not forecast for the snow. But 
the deepening low-pressure center over northern Illinois and Wisconsin could 
spark some stronger thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Models 
are mixed on whether or not all the ingredients necessary for strong-to-severe 
thunderstorms will be present at the same time, leading to a lower-confidence 
forecast. But given that, there is still potential for the Storm Prediction 
Center, which currently has a slight risk of severe weather, to upgrade their 
outlook and risk potential. All forms of severe weather would be possible, 
including tornadoes, should all the factors manifest. That would be a rare and 
early severe weather outbreak this far north. Climatology favors the Gulf Coast 
states with severe weather potential in February.

   The system will push through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Friday, Feb. 
20, with a mix of rain and snow. Some thunderstorms may be left over from 
Thursday, but severe weather would be unlikely. This could result in some 
heavier snow in the Northeast, however, extending the risks of more than six 
inches of accumulation to a wider area of the country.

   The third and final piece to the system is much more uncertain than the 
first two. There will be another burst of energy that moves through the 
Southwest U.S. for Thursday and Friday. Additional snowfall to ease the snow 
drought is expected there and will occur farther south into Arizona and New 
Mexico as well. But as that system is forecast to move into the Plains on 
Saturday, it may not be in the best position to take hold of the lingering cold 
front from the second system to produce widespread precipitation. The DTN 
forecast does account for the potential for this third wave of the storm to be 
a big one, which would mean snow potential from California through Maine, but 
not all models agree. The very reliable ECMWF model shows very little 
precipitation east of the Rockies with a band of weak snow across Colorado and 
Kansas of less than an inch with scattered rain showers near the Gulf Coast 
over the weekend.

   The American GFS solution, in stark contrast, develops a band of more than 
four inches of snow across Kansas and continues measurable snow through the 
southern end of the Midwest before significantly developing the system offshore 
and becoming a nor'easter type of storm for southern New England where heavy 
snow and strong winds could create a big hassle for a large population base. 
Reality will likely fall somewhere in between, which could still cause some 
significant impacts for a large portion of the country.

   Another noticeable feature behind this system will be the massive drop in 
temperature. Temperatures east of the Rockies are extremely warm by February 
standards, with some areas of the Plains and western Midwest 20-30 degrees 
above average to start the week. Colder air pooling up in the West, and 
especially in western Canada, will fuel the storm systems as they move through. 
And as they do so, temperatures will drop significantly. Though the resulting 
temperatures will be only 5-10 degrees below average for most areas of the 
country, the stark change will lead to a 30-40 degree temperature drop behind 
the slow-moving cold front as it is progressively pushed along by the three 
systems throughout the week. The cold will not last long, however, as more warm 
air and another week of chaotic weather is in store for the last week of 
February.

   To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free 
from DTN, head over to 
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/weather/interactive-map

   John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.comA




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